Will Russia Invade Georgia Again?
The Russians are staging major “War Games” in the Caucasus Mountain region this week, dangerously close to Georgia. These war games include infantry, armour and artillery units and naval forces from the Black Sea Fleet at least, and probably some helicopters and air assets as well. These war games are possibly simply in response to the NATO war games of a few weeks ago, but I think this is much more than that.
The Russians have already been building new roads through the Caucuses into the territories they captured from Georgia last summer (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and pre-positioning supplies. These are signs of either a building a major military base permanently or preparing for another invasion. A friend of mine traveled in Georgia recently and confirmed that there are rumors of an upcoming war for later this summer. But those are rumors.
The dangerous thing is that NATO has now been in Georgia and is giving some promise of aid. This is a result of the Bush policy of expanding NATO into states that border Russia. This is all well and good, wanting to see democracy expand. But it was done in a manner to deliberately tweak the nose of Putin and the Russkies. Would NATO go to war over Georgia? Or Ukraine? Go to war with what? America is tied down in Iraq/Afghanistan and we are close to a war in North Korea. Now Chavez in Venezuela is threatening to send troops to Honduras of all places.
I don’t want to sound defeatist but I just don’t see as how there is anything we can do to defend Georgia. Putin is an expansionist and communist (old style KGB).
We live in a very dangerous world and things are rapidly spinning out of control.
Here are the stories on the Russian military exercises in the Caucasus: